With The Academy Awards less than a week away, discussions on who will and won’t win are heating up. Every year, people have predictions about winners and opinions about who was snubbed and who was robbed in the awards ceremony. Here’s what I have to say about this year’s nominees.
First, in terms of snubs, “The Perks of Being a Wallflower” deserves recognition for being the best high school drama in years — if not ever. And it would not have hurt the Academy to give Leonardo DiCaprio a nod for his diabolical turn as a plantation owner in “Django Unchained.” But in regards to what is nominated, here are my thoughts.
Best Picture
What Will Win: “Argo” — Ben Affleck’s third directorial effort is the true tale of a fake film production that was created by the CIA as a cover rescue for six U.S. diplomats during the Iran hostage crisis of 1979. While “Argo” certainly has suspense, it lacks character development. Only one scene makes a considerable emotional impact: the sequence in which a diplomat distracts two Iranian security guards with storyboards for the titular fake film — a stirring reminder of film’s power as a universal language. In the end, “Argo” is stereotypical Oscar bait — an inspiring yet ultimately unremarkable historical drama.
What Should Win: “Django Unchained” — Quentin Tarantino’s western revenge fantasy of a slave-turned-gunslinger, “Django Unchained” is an ideal Best Picture winner. It’s a vintage genre film that breaks conventions and holds a funhouse mirror up to history.
Best Director
Who Will and Should Win: David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook” — In lesser hands, this film could have felt like typical family-drama Oscar bait. But Russell paints a sentimental yet realistic portrait of love and mental illness, ultimately showing how they can feel like one and the same.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln” — Yes, Day-Lewis brings vulnerability to Abraham Lincoln and grounds the iconic president in reality. But the actor has received enough recognition for his talent. A third Academy Award seems excessive.
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook” — I hate to admit it, but I found this character far more engaging and relatable than Lincoln. As bipolar Philadelphian Pat Solatano, Cooper is at once charming and heartbreaking, making viewers feel like his struggles and triumphs are their own.
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty” — Although buzz for the film has died down, I suspect Chastain’s performance will be recognized. However, I feel like she only embodies the problem with the film, namely its cold, detached nature. Frankly, her character’s singular drive to kill Osama bin Laden grew tiresome.
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook” — In comparison to Chastain’s character, Lawrence has a richer role here, playing a young widow struggling to overcome her own mental obstacles while helping a friend cope with his.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained” — As a quirky, Civil War-era bounty hunter who teams up with a slave, Waltz is a delight to watch, but he is no more charming than he is in his other Oscar-winning turn in “Inglorious Basterds.”
Who Should Win: Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook” — De Niro should win on the basis that this is the first performance in years that he hasn’t phoned in. As a father struggling to cope with his son’s mental illness, De Niro reminds us why he is regarded as one of the finest actors around.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will and Should Win: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables” — The saving grace of a terrible film, Hathaway’s performance is what this musical failed to be: humble, intimate and immersive.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained” — Tarantino’s funniest and most unpredictable film since “Pulp Fiction,” this wild western is a shoo-in for the Oscar. Its controversy only helps its chances of winning.
Who Should Win: John Gatins, “Flight” — Although Tarantino’s script is entertaining, Gatins’ is truly original. The tale of an airline pilot who makes a miraculous crash-landing under the influence of alcohol, “Flight” is a harrowing portrait of addiction that simmers with suspense.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Tony Kushner, “Lincoln” — As eloquent as the titular character himself, this film reveals the man behind the legend without reducing his iconic stature. It’s not terribly imaginative, but it’s effective nonetheless.
Who Should Win: David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook” — Blithely juggling love, family and mental illness, this script paints a portrait that is at once funny, poignant and casually profound.
Be sure to tune in to the Oscars at 7 p.m. Sunday on ABC.
