2008 is a shining, brand-new year, and like every new year, now is a good time to evaluate ourselves and look ahead to the future. What does 2008 hold for you, for me, for Muncie, for the U.S.? What will happen in 2009? 2010? What will transpire in the next few decades?
It's hard enough to foresee next week, let alone 2028. Nonetheless, speculating about the future is always a fun little intellectual exercise. So please keep in mind that this is just that: speculation - grounded in facts, but speculation nonetheless - on the future history of the United States. And - as in the purportedly Chinese curse - we are probably going to see some interesting times in our lives.
The future will be shaped on the large scale by impersonal economic and natural forces; the effects on American society will be, in the first case, triggered by our dependence on fossil fuels, and, in the second, by climate change. What will these mean for us individually over the rest of our lives, and over the next year?
The world's oil fields are pumping crude at record levels, churning out 85 million barrels each day. That's the good news; the bad news is that this will be the record level for all time. Production levels will not increase substantially in the near future, and will begin drastically decreasing sometime in the next decade. Demand will continue to grow exponentially, and this means that oil prices will continue to rise. Just last week, in fact, the price of a barrel of crude hit its all-time high, surpassing even the highest peaks of the supply crunches of the 1970s and 1980s.
Of course, the price of a gallon of gasoline will also continue to increase. The Energy Information Administration suspects that the mean price of gas in the U.S. in 2008 will be $3.14 per gallon; seasonal fluctuations mean we'll probably be looking at gas busting past $4.00 per gallon in some places next year. Be prepared.
Where will that lead us as a nation? Oil-rich countries in the Middle East will continue to pull our focus like open flames pull moths: we import 60% of our oil, 98% of which is used in cars around which we've structured our entire society (an exercise in lack of foresight, but that's another column). As much as we should, we won't be leaving Iraq, and the number U.S. and Iraqi deaths will continue to mount. The number of Iraqis lost in the conflict will probably top 500,000.
Speaking of driving and polluting emissions, anthropogenic global warming is real, and it's happening faster than any of the experts expected, according to an International Panel on Climate Change report published last November. This year that only means that chances are, the weather will continue to be wonky, but the real problems will come in the long term: sea levels rising, increased famine and drought frequency. It won't be a real problem in the first world for years, but when we college students are old people, our children and grandchildren will be working through the consequences of climate change.
Well, I'm about out of words for this week, and we haven't even started talking about the presidential elections! This delivery of your weekly dose of bunnies, sparkly rainbows and candy canes has been brought to you by The Committee Bent on Spreading Doom and Gloom, wishing you and yours a happy new year.
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