SPEAK SOFTLY: Front-runners rarely make the final cut

In recent weeks more and more people are announcing their intentions to pursue the White House for 2008. We're starting to look at these candidates and get an idea of who the main contenders for the Presidency are going to be. We can look at all of them and decide how each of us feel about these candidates and who we plan on supporting in the coming months.

The 2008 race is going to be unique when it comes to who is running. It will be the first time in 80 years that neither the current president nor vice president is running for the presidency. Dick Cheney has expressed numerous times that he will not run. This means that everyone is on a somewhat even playing field.

Although some candidates are far better known than others, this is not necessarily indicative of who the front-runners are going to be and who in the end is going to be elected.

Thinking back to the Democratic primary race in 2004, we can look at who the early front-runners were in the Democratic Party's campaign. Howard Dean was easily the favorite for many months before the Iowa Caucus. It was only when the first caucuses and primaries took place that John Kerry came forward as the most likely candidate.

There are so many candidates at this point that the only guesses we can make on who is running come down to who is the most well known and who is the most popular. While Hillary Clinton may not be as well liked as other candidates, she is easily one of the most well known politicians today.

Other candidates are just as well known as Clinton. Barack Obama has name recognition as well. America already learned about the politics of John Edwards when Kerry chose him as his vice presidential candidate back in 2004 and he is now officially in the running for 2008. In the days following 9/11, Rudy Giuliani became one of the most loved and respected people in American politics. He has formed an exploratory committee to look into running for president. Should he decide to do so he will have a great advantage in name recognition and in the memories of Americans who saw him lead New York City through it's and America's tragedy of 9/11.

It's also interesting to see the small name candidates who are emerging. Two of the three people who have officially become candidates for the Republicans, John Cox and Michael Charles Smith, have never won an election. And who knows, an unknown candidate might just be what this country is looking for at this point.

What holds back these candidates is the fact that this will be by far the most expensive election in history. Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner was quoted as saying that by the time it is all said and done, the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election." If any candidate wants to have a legitimate chance they need to raise around $100 million by the end of 2007.

Don't get burned out yet though. W still have until Nov. 4th, 2008 to watch the campaigning, debating and mudslinging and try and pick who will do the best job as the 44th president and commander in chief.

Write to Alex at apcarroll@bsu.edu.


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