WASHINGTON — If a political rookie from Hollywood can ousta two-term governor, perhaps no incumbent is safe. The recall inCalifornia, where voter discontent made political history, giveshope to challengers everywhere.
Even as Democratic and Republican strategists cautioned againstassigning broad national implications to Gov. Gray Davis' demise,they said the recall campaign has reinvigorated a decade-old strainof disenchantment that incumbents must face--or fall to.
''There is a piece of this that is germane only to Davis--a bigpiece. That said, this is also a flashing yellow light toincumbents all across the country: Welcome to the politics of ajobless economy,'' said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., former aide toPresident Clinton and a supporter of Wesley Clark's Democraticpresidential campaign.
Clinton benefited in 1992 from Ross Perot's anti-establishmentcampaign, which undercut then-President Bush's re-election bid. Aroaring economy under Clinton's watch tempered voter unrest, thoughthe sentiments rose again to buoy wrestler-turned-Minnesotagovernor Jesse Ventura and 2000 GOP presidential candidate JohnMcCain.
Clark is a retired Army general who, like Gov.-elect ArnoldSchwarzenegger, has no experience in elective office and littlesubstance behind his domestic policies. Clark hopes to play a rolemastered by California's Hollywood-honed new governor--thepolitical outsider.
Rival Howard Dean must take a different tack because he is nopolitical neophyte; the Democratic presidential front-runner has a20-year political career, including five terms as Vermont'sgovernor. His anti-war, anti-establishment message appeals tovoters tired of the Washington hierarchy, including Democraticleaders and President Bush.
Dean would like to think there is a national backlash againstincumbents, but he wonders.
''It's a day after the vote. We don't really know the answer tothat question,'' the candidate said in a telephone interviewbetween campaign stops Wednesday. ''I do know we've lost 3 millionjobs, and people don't know what do about Iraq, and the presidentdoesn't know how to get us out.''
Even some Democratic strategists said Dean and his rivals can'tread California's results as a mandate.
''This has no implication for George Bush or the Democrats,''said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, whose firm representspresidential hopeful Joe Lieberman. ''It was people voting againstDavis. Not much more.''
Strategists said the recall did:
-- Exacerbate partisan divisions, with Democratic activistslinking it to the contested presidential election in 2000. ''TheRepublicans are the party of Bonnie and Clyde -- they go from stateto state stealing elections,'' said Chris Lehane, a Democraticstrategist who worked on Al Gore's campaign.
-- Complicated Bush's re-election bid. White House officialsworry that Schwarzenegger will founder as he wrestles withCalifornia's budget deficit, the state's conservative GOP and aDemocratic legislature. It might have been easier to run againstthe wildly unpopular Davis, they say. Now the president's fortunesare linked to a new governor who enters the statehouse with a 45percent unfavorable rating and accusations of sexual misconducthanging over his head.
-- Point out why recalls are hard to organize in states notcalled California. ''After that circus, any state that already hasa recall is less likely to use it and those thinking of having onewill think twice,'' said Thomas Baldino, political scienceprofessor at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.
The next measure of voter angst will be a smattering ofelections next month. But incumbents don't appear to be under anyunusual stress in Mississippi, New Jersey and other places stagingNovember contests.
''The dynamics here were unique to this governorship and thisparticular recall effort,'' said Republican Party chairman EdGillespie. ''I'm not sure you can extrapolate anything thathappened in California to what might happen nationwide.''
Democrats and Republicans took one lesson from Davis' demise --a bad economy hurts an incumbent who doesn't deal with it.
''What we're going to see is incumbent governors -- Republicansand Democrats -- being much more cautious and worried aboutinflaming public opinion,'' said pollster Schoen.
''It could bite Bush, too.''
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